Monday, August 25, 2014

Long Term Forecast - El Niño

Whenever someone asks what kind of season we are going to have, my answer is always the same, "AWESOME."  There is a lot of talk out there about El Niño and it's impact on skiing for the 2014-15 ski season. For years I have thought that long term forecasts give only the very broadest indication of what the weather may be for a very broad area, like, say a continent. Any real expectation of a successful detailed forecast, particularly in Colorado, should be very limited.

Now, one of the world's great snow and weather nerds, Joel Gratz at, has recently written a couple of outstanding articles on his website. He provides very good information about what we can and cannot expect this season including particularly detailed beta on El Niño. I  highly recommend a visit to his website to read those articles. He is the "Man."

I am sure A-Basin will have an AWESOME season.


Joel Gratz said...

I don't know about "the man", but I sure do love forecasting snow:-) The accuracy of long-range forecasts is low, but at this point in August it's fun to see what the science attempts to say about the winter, even if it's more for pure entertainment value. Can't wait for the snow to start!

Joel Gratz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ryan said...

"Joe's" website with the specific articles -

Alan Henceroth - COO and Vice President said...

I think you are the "MAN"

Michael Ricci said...

Al, do you guys have a set date to start making snow? Seeing as it has been a cooler summer would you be willing to start earlier than usual if the wet bulb cooperates?

If this trend continues, I would not be surprised if you'd be able to push for a late September/Early October opening (knock on wood)